Underdog campaigns do not only move numbers. They move people. A volunteer who spent that first Iowa winter in Des Moines often spent the next month in a New Hampshire spare room with the same folding table.
In spring 2026 a reader mailed from Wandsworth: the Iowa spreadsheet still made sense, the suitcase from that winter did not. 8 December 2023 was when we heard from two others who had packed between debate nights. Through 2020 the travel pattern was quieter, more about stored yard signs than new flights. That winter was the first time London showed up as a destination rather than a curiosity.
If you are reading this because you followed Yang's polling place, stay for the history cards on the home page. If you are reading because a campaign kit is still in boxes, that is a moving problem, not a betting-market problem. We keep those two jobs on different URLs on purpose.
This page does not rerun 2020. It does not sell vans. It explains why a site about nomination odds keeps talking about packing tape.